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Rubio is lying – Israel is not driving this war; US imperial decline is 

Originally published in Counterpunch+, 22nd March 2026

Two days into the US attack on Iran, Secretary of State Marco Rubio made the extraordinary claim that the war was, in fact, a legal, pre-emptive defensive measure necessitated by Israel’s own pending strikes on the country. Scrambling for a legal figleaf for the US role in the aggression, he claimed that the Israeli strikes alone would have led to Iranian retaliation against US forces in the region, and therefore Iran, although it did not know it, posed an imminent threat to the US, which the US had the legal right to pre-emptively defend itself against. “We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action, we knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces, and we knew that if we didn’t preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties,” he told reporters on March 2nd. 

This tortuous abuse of logic is, of course, a legal nonsense. I cannot legally punch you in the face on the grounds that I knew my buddy was about to punch you in the face and you might have retaliated. But legal niceties are, of course, not something in which Trump and his team have any interest. 

Yet despite being an obvious pile of crap, Rubio’s statement has been leapt on by many, on the left as well as on the far right, to somehow ‘prove’ that the US ruling class were bounced into a war against their own interests by the Israelis. 

There is a section of MAGA that have always attempted to sell Trump as an isolationist, who will end US involvement in foreign wars. Trump himself has never promised that – rather, he has consistently, and massively, ramped up military spending, and not only to build ‘deterrence’, but in order to attack other countries; famously asking, what was the point of having a military if you are not going to use it? His criticism of the ‘Democrats’ wars’ was that they were supposedly launching them altruistically, to help the nations they were annihilating (for someone supposedly skeptical of the Democrats, he certainly swallowed a lot of their bullshit) – whereas he would never bomb people for their own good, but only to serve the US. Whether the parents of the resulting severed children would be able to discern the difference is, of course, moot. 

Even Trump’s supposed hostility to NATO, widely portrayed, even by many on the left, as evidence of Trump’s ‘isolationism’, is, in fact, a war plan. His threats to leave the alliance have been aimed, openly, at pressuring his allies to ramp up their own military spending. Why? To join the US in future wars of aggression, in particular the looming big one, with China. As Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute has noted, Trump’s regular humiliation of his European allies over their lack of military capability aims to coerce them into building up their militaries into a position where they are able “to hold down the Russian flank if the US ends up in a conflict with China.” 

Trump’s first term should have put to rest any ideas that Trump was somehow an ‘anti-war’ President. His very first foreign visit was to the monarchical dictatorship of Saudi Arabia, to sign a $110billion arms deal, a massive show of support and material commitment to the horrific and genocidal war on Yemen that the Saudis were then carrying out on behalf of western capitalism. 

During that first term alone he ramped up economic warfare on both Iran and China with punitive sanctions; approved the sale of lethal weaponry to Ukraine that Obama had banned; doubled the rate of US global gun-running; launched airstrikes against the Syrian government in the midst of its struggle against ISIS and Al Qaeda; killed tens of thousands in the terror bombing of Raqqa and Mosul; and dropped the biggest non-nuclear bomb in history – in its first ever use – on impoverished Afghanistan. 

By the end of the first year of his second term, he had already ordered 658 airstrikes, more than Biden managed in four years, on seven different countries. 

Nevertheless, claimed his apologists, he has never directly launched an open war of regime change in the Middle East. Despite all the illegality, aggression, killing and bloodshed, this was the one thing that made him – and, by extension, the broader MAGA movement – somehow different from the Democrats. Now they no longer even have that. 

Floundering to explain Trump’s war, many of the movement’s major spokespeople have seized on Israel as a convenient means of whitewashing US imperial interests. 

Candace Owens, leading face of the far right’s slick 21st century makeover and, until recently, a key Trump apologist, tweeted a message to US soldiers that “Trump has betrayed America and expects you to die for Israel…This was not Trump’s decision; it was Bibi Netanyahu’s decision… Israel is dictating our foreign policy and we would now like that to stop.” Tucker Carlson also claimed that Operation Epic Fury was being waged strictly on behalf of Israel, after he had visited Trump in the White House three times in the previous month, supposedly to lobby against the attack. Nick Fuentes, Alex Jones, Marjorie Taylor Greene and Megyn Kelly have all characterised the attack on Iran as a “betrayal” of the US, being fought purely on behalf of Israel, at the expense of American interests. Most significantly, Joe Kent, Trump’s most senior counter-intelligence officer, quit on 17th March with a bombastic resignation letter claiming that “we started this war due to pressure from Israel,” who were also responsible for “draw[ing] us into the disastrous Iraq war.” 

Whilst it is no doubt pleasing to see the MAGA movement tear itself apart, this is a pernicious and foolish narrative. Playing into the key Trump theme of white victimhood, it portrays poor innocent USA as a well-meaning dupe of the Big Foreign (Jewish) Other – and airbrushes US imperialism out of the picture altogether. And there are many on the left pushing the same line: Navarra media’s Aaron Bastani, for example, claimed that Rubio’s comment demonstrates that US and Britain have been ‘bounced into a conflict’ by Israel and ‘there’s no ‘national interest’ about this.’ 

The reality is that Iran has been in the crosshairs of the US empire for decades. The Dubya-era policy of Full Spectrum Dominance had already spelt out a quarter of a century ago that the US military required control of all aspects of the battlefield – air, sea and land – across the globe. The implication of this was that no regional independent power should be allowed to exist, as these could potentially deny US military control over certain battlefields. Iraq – not just its government, but its potential to exist as a functioning, independent nation state – was taken out in pursuance of this strategy in 2003; and then in 2007 we learnt from former commander of US forces in Europe, Wesley Clark, that the US Defence Department had also planned to take out Somalia, Libya, Syria, Lebanon, Sudan and Iran in the years that followed. With the exception of Iran, all have now been wrecked by US or US-sponsored war. 

Iran poses a particular threat to the US-dominated colonial world order, for a number of reasons. Like Iraq, it has a large population and rich resources, an exception to the standard arrangements in the Middle East, created by the British and French on the ashes of the Ottoman Empire following the First World War, which largely divided the region into countries with large populations and minimal oil (like Egypt) or significant oil resources and tiny populations (like the Gulf states). The presence of both in Iran gives its state a strength and independence almost unique amongst the countries of the region. And it has been consistently using this independent strength to resist imperialist designs – from the attempted annihilation of resistant populations in Yemen and Gaza, to the collapsing of the Syrian state, to the dollar’s monopoly as an oil-trading currency – for many years. Iran’s decision to start trading oil in the yuan in 2012 seriously rattled US strategists, as the global tribute on which the entire US military and economy depends rests on maintaining the dollar’s position as a reserve currency. This position is what enables the US to exchange intangible dollars for the hundreds of billions of dollars worth of real goods and services which it imports, effectively for free, each year – but only as long as other countries want dollars in the bank. And they only want dollars in the bank if they know they are tradable for the world’s uber-commodity – oil. The minute the link is broken, the whole system is under serious threat. 

Furthermore, Iranian military solidarity with Syria blocked, for many years, the west’s attempts at state collapse there; whilst their support for Hezbollah in Lebanon has helped that force to act as a brake on Israeli impunity. That is not only an Israeli problem. Israel is one of the key pillars of imperial control of the Middle East (the other being the House of Saud), and acts as, in the words of Reagan’s Defence Minister, an “American aircraft carrier…that cannot be sunk.”

Even if Israel did not exist, therefore, Iran’s very existence as an independent regional power, would still have to be destroyed in order to maintain US imperial hegemony in its era of growing crisis. 

And beyond US hegemony, global capitalism as a whole requires war, as William I Robinson has repeatedly explained, in order to stave off its growing accumulation crisis. This crisis consists of ever declining avenues for profitable investment as markets become glutted, with workers too impoverished to consume what they produce.  This brings capitalism up against one of its fundamental, and insoluble, contradictions: that as each individual capitalist is incentivized to maximise production and minimise wages, this very process cuts the ground from beneath the feet of the entire system, with the mass of workers simply unable to afford to buy what they produce (with ever increasing efficiency). War can provide a temporary respite, however, by eliminating a mass of productive capacity, and providing opportunities to invest in rebuilding from the ashes. It is no coincidence that the mechanism which transformed the ‘Great Depression’ of the 1930s into the ‘Golden Era’ of capitalism (from the 1950s to the 1970s) was precisely World War Two, the most destructive bloodletting humanity has ever inflicted on itself. 

Ultimately, US imperial hegemony requires the dismantling of China, openly cast since 2018, along with Russia, as the “principal priority” for the US Defence Department. Jack Watling again, notes that the war on Iran is part of a broad US global strategy to isolate China in preparation for a war on China which they are envisioning fighting as early as next year. Watling refers to “a global strategic view within the [US] military and security community that they run the risk of being in what they would call global protracted simultaneous conflict with China but also others from next year. And in that context they want to desynchronise those threats so that if a conflict breaks out over Taiwan it is just between the US and China and certain regional countries… And there is a logic therefore for writing down Venezuela, Cuba … and Iran as one of the greatest threats potentially to US bases and supply lines. Now that’s a strategic logic for destroying the navy and the strike capabilities, the ballistic missiles that Iran has, which is broadly speaking the entire objective that has been articulated by the US military.” Indeed, recent western wars, from Iraq to Libya to Syria to Iran, can also be read as attempts to cut China off from its potential allies, its supply lines and its sources of raw materials in preparation for the big war with China. 

These are the forces driving the war on Iran, and they would exist even if Netanyahu had never been born. 

Moreover, just because the war is going badly for the US, does not mean that it is not driven by imperial interests. As Mao liked to say, the imperialist picks up a rock only to drop it on his own two feet. This is not because some sneaky Jew talked him into it; it is because imperialism is fundamentally unsustainable, and even though the measures it takes to extend its dominance may end up hastening its decline, it takes them anyway because the consequences of not doing so may well be judged as yet more calamitous. The war on Iraq went badly, and was widely seen as a disaster – yet, it achieved its fundamental goal of knocking out Iraq’s potential as an independent regional power, and thus postponing the inevitable end of US oil-dollar hegemony for a few years longer. 

The war on Iran is also going badly. Twenty years ago, Eric Hobsbawm noted that the US “can destroy us all, but it cannot make the world go its way anymore.” This appears to be true for Iran too: Trump can crow all he likes about killing several layers of Iran’s political leadership, sinking its navy, and destroying its infrastructure: but none of this will actually prevent Iranian attacks on Israel, the Gulf states, or even US bases (including those thousands of miles away, such as Diego Garcia), nor will it open the Strait of Hormuz to the tankers of the US and its allies. To do that will require an agreement. This war may prove to be a seminal moment in the collapse of US and western hegemony, for it has demonstrated to the whole world that the US cannot protect you. Given that US foreign policy essentially amounts to nothing more than a protection racket, this is not a good look, as protection (from itself, from its allies, and from the fallout of its own aggression) is all it has to offer. And now, it is clear, it cannot even offer that. Taiwan will certainly be taking note. 

Mirroring the war on the ground, the information war, too, is falling apart. US and Israeli officials are contradicting each other all over the place – over who started the war, over US prior knowledge of the Israeli attack on South Pars; over whether the war’s aims are regime change, or destruction of nuclear capacity, or missile production infrastructure, or leverage to force a new leadership to submit to a more humiliating deal; over whether even a single other country is willing to help Trump pull his chestnuts out of the fire in the Strait of Hormuz . Trump’s threats to respond to any further attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure with the total obliteration of Iran’s gasfields was proven to be an empty threat after Iran completely ignored it and went on to repeatedly hit Kuwait’s Al-Mahdi oil refinery 

Despite all this, however, US imperial logic still demanded this war. The only way to extend crumbling US hegemony is to destroy regional powers with the capacity to resist its military domination. This means the permanent fracture and crippling of nations like Iran. As Trump himself has admitted, the war aim is to destroy Iran’s capacity to make missiles. Given that any country with even a moderately advanced economy has such a capacity, this amounts to a plan to prevent Iran from ever having a functioning industrial economy. Iraq is the model, or better still, Gaza. 

Trump has been open about his intention to destroy Iran since at least 2016, and stuffed his first Cabinet with Iran war hawks. Yet the US did not feel it could launch a direct attack whilst Iran’s allies Hezbollah, Syria and Russia were all strong. It took time to get the pieces in place, and to get all three degraded, overthrown or bogged down in their own war. Even with Iran isolated, however, this did not mean that a win was guaranteed; and obviously the US ruling class were split about the operation’s wisdom and chances of success from the start. But this does not mean that the logic driving its timing – that this may be the only time to strike with a chance of winning, given that the world balance of forces is only going to change in Iran’s favour over time – was not essentially sound. 

If we are to have a chance of ever coming out of this period of fascism and world war into which we are rapidly plunging, we need to enter into it with eyes wide open. The far right are on the ascendancy, and, as fascism always is, they are very ideologically flexible. Today there is a fascism masquerading for everyone – a pro-Zionist fascism, and an anti-Zionist fascism; a libertarian fascism and a welfare statist fascism; an isolationist fascism and an imperialist one. In the end, however, what unites them is that they are fundamentally anti-working class, and fully on board with the militarist build-up which is leading to world war. The US ruling class is increasingly bent on channelling all anti-establishment, anti-authoritarian, and anti-war popular sentiment towards fascism; and needs, therefore, to have plenty of its spokespeople in place to absorb the popular anger against this war – and to do so in a way that utterly elides the reality of US imperialism, blaming all its symptoms on the nefarious influence of its foreign junior partner. That the left would be party to this is indicative of the depth of work that needs to be done.

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Disarming Genocide: Then and Now 

This week, the trial of six young activists who attempted to disarm Israeli weapons in a British arms factory draws to a close. Thirty years ago this month, four women undertook a similar action; in both cases, the defendants argued that their actions were legal attempts to prevent genocide. The political climate – and legal rights – have deteriorated significantly between the two actions: but the state is more afraid now than ever. 

L to R: Andrea Needham, Angie Zelter, Lotta Kronlid, Jo Wilson, outside Liverpool Crown Court, July 1996

Originally published in Counterpunch + , 25th January 2026

Thirty years ago this month, on January 29th 1996, three women broke into a British arms factory near Liverpool and set about disarming a Hawk fighter jet, built by British Aerospace for use by Indonesia in their genocidal war against East Timor. Hammering on the wings, fuselage, nosecone and control panel, they caused somewhere between £500,000 and £1.7million of damage to the plane and delayed the plane’s delivery to Indonesia by an undisclosed amount of time.

The action was first conceived at a ‘Ploughshares’ workshop at a peace camp in 1995. The Ploughshares movement takes inspiration from the biblical injunction to ‘turn swords into ploughshares’ and uses nonviolent direct action to disarm the weapons of war. The first Ploughshares action took place in the US in 1980, when eight people hammered on the nosecones of nuclear warheads at a General Electric factory in Pennsylvania; ten years later, Stephen Hancock and Mike Hutchinson inaugurated the movement’s presence in Britain when they snuck into USAF Upper Heyford in Oxfordshire intending to disable warplanes. At the workshop in 1995, several of the female participants agreed it would be great for such an action to be undertaken specifically by a group of women.

For the next ten months, Andrea Needham, Lotta Kronlid, Angie Zelter, Jo Wilson and their support group comprising six more women spent an intensive weekend each month in preparation for what they were about to do. Their target was to be one of the 24 Hawk fighter jets British Aerospace were building for Indonesia, which were being used to bomb Timorese villages, contributing to an estimated death toll of one third of the population since the occupation began twenty years earlier. General Suharto, head of the Indonesian state and military, had taken power in 1965 in a coup facilitated by the US and Britain, which saw hundreds of thousands of suspected communists executed using hit lists provided by western intelligence services. He was their man, and they were determined to use him to cull a resistant population threatening neocolonial designs in the region. John Pilger’s 1994 film, Death of a Nation, with its footage of the 1991 Santa Cruz massacre (filmed and smuggled out of the country by Max Stahl), had highlighted Suharto’s crimes for the first time to many in Britain – including the Ploughshares women. 

At their monthly meetings, the women discussed everything from their fears about prison life, how they would respond to violent security guards, and how to deal with the media; to philosophical discussions around militarism, patriarchy and authority – not to mention the detailed planning of the action itself. As the agreed date approached, gruelling reconnaissance operations were undertaken, involving lying on frozen ground overlooking the factory from dawn til dusk until they were finally able to ascertain which hangar was housing the Hawks. At the last meeting of the full group, meditations were conducted on the themes of fear, violence, and despair, with each of them writing down what these meant to them, before burning the paper. Another was held on the theme of hope, whilst holding a handful of seeds which were then mixed with the ash from the burnt papers to sprinkle at the scene, and which gave the name to the action: Seeds of Hope Ploughshares. Then the hammers, some of them hand carved by members of the group, were given a blessing – and on the night of January 29th, three of the women headed out to BAe Warton in Lancashire. 

Several things went wrong. Someone was out late working on their boat in the usually deserted boatyard they had to cross on the way to the factory, forcing them to climb up an almost vertical bank and over a barbed wire fence, their heavy bags full of hammers and iron crowbars. When they got to the site, the lights on the site were unexpectedly on, unlike every other Sunday they had been there. They decided to proceed regardless – any delay would mean the Hawks might have already been shipped to Indonesia. Then, at the hangar itself, after smashing the glass window of the fire escape, they couldn’t find the bar on the other side to get it open. Jo ran around the building and managed to find another entrance on the folding metal shutters, which between them they managed to crowbar open. They were in. 

In her brilliant book on the action, The Hammer Blow, Andrea Needham recounted that “One of the beautiful things about Ploughshares actions is that anyone can do them. You don’t need to be a technical genius or an engineer, you don’t need to be physically strong, you don’t need any expensive equipment or special skills. All you need is a hammer and a functioning arm. We each had both of those things. We started hammering.”

Working quickly, and expecting to be discovered any moment, they focused on the nosecone and control panel, where they knew they could do the maximum damage in the least time. They scattered their seeds, hung a banner on the plane, and left a video and booklet outlining the situation in East Timor in the cockpit, hoping they’d be seen by the British Aerospace management, the police – and ultimately the jury. 

In the end, they had far more time than they’d expected. They could probably, in fact, have damaged all of the Tornadoes and Hawks in the hangar, several of which were bound for Saudi Arabia, another neocolonial client state charged with repressing resistant populations on the west’s behalf. But they restricted themself to the plane bound for Indonesia, “to keep the issue clear.” Several times a security buggy drove by the hangar but failed to spot them, even when they were jumping up and down to attract their attention. Getting caught – in order to explain themselves and be accountable for their actions – was always part of the plan, but “the one possibility we hadn’t discussed was that of not being able to let British Aerospace know we were there.” In the end, they decided to call the press from a phone they found in an office, so that the company would be alerted to their presence when they were called for a comment. They also took the opportunity to call their comrade Angie and Lotta’s relatives in Sweden, and were on the phone to John Pilger when the security finally arrived. 

Like the Filton 24 on trial this week, they were denied bail and remanded in custody, facing prison sentences of up to ten years if found guilty. And like the Palestine Action prisoners currently on hunger strike, they found the diktat of the prison regime – capricious and arbitrary at the best of times – even more vindictive than usual due to the political nature of their charges. Locked inside for weeks at a time – despite the statutory right to an hour’s outdoor exercise per day – they were then barred from running when they finally got out; and even barred from walking round the perimeter, supposedly on the grounds that they might pass things to the women on the hospital wing as they passed by. 

They were then barred from being moved to the usual wing for prisoners with ‘good behaviour’ – where they would have had a chance to work on their defence preparation together – as, the governor explained, the Home Office had claimed they represented a “security risk.” The governor had already told Lotta they were worried the women might attempt to organise a ‘sit-down protest’ amongst their fellow prisoners, but did eventually let slip the real reason for the supposed ‘threat’ posed by the women: “You’ve embarrassed the government once,” she told them, “and we don’t want to give you the opportunity to do it again.” They were also barred from attending prison education and art classes. 

The 29 Palestine Action prisoners currently on remand in British jails (the Filton 24 and the Brize Norton 5) have also been deemed a security risk, with some even reclassified as ‘terrorists’ following the government’s banning of Palestine Action last summer. Amu Gib, of the Brize Norton 5, was barred from art classes after they embroidered ‘Free Palestine’ onto a cushion they were making, and others have apparently been barred from socialising, going to gym, and receiving mail. Amu explained recently that this arbitrary abuse of their rights was a significant part of the reason for the current hunger strike. 

In July 1996, after nearly six months on remand, the women’s trial began. They wanted to represent themselves, but had decided it would be useful to have a barrister in the room, so in the end Jo agreed to be represented by Vera Baird whilst Lotta, Andrea and Angie represented themselves. It turned out to be an excellent compromise. On a psychological level, seeing the women seated behind a desk taking notes rather than only in the dock – effectively in the role of barristers as much as defendants for much of the trial – may well have given them a certain legitimacy and respectability in the subconscious mind of the jury. But having a trained barrister able to take on the judge over points of law also turned out to be extremely helpful. 

They had been charged under the Criminal Damage Act 1971, which makes it an offence to destroy or damage property “without lawful excuse”. And, as Andrea put it, “on that three word rider hung our whole case.” Their excuse was that of using reasonable force to prevent a crime, as allowed under section 3 of the Criminal Law Act 1967. 

Early on in the trial, three key decisions were made that proved crucial for their case. 

Firstly, after a long battle by their tenacious barrister, the judge allowed them to bring in expert witnesses to demonstrate that British-made Hawk fighter jets were indeed being used in East Timor to commit war crimes. The judge had initially denied their request out of hand. The ‘reasonable force’ defence technically rests on whether the defendant genuinely believes that a crime is taking place. The prosecution argued that, as the Crown had conceded that the defendants did genuinely believe this, there was no need for them to prove that a crime actually was occurring in East Timor. But Vera challenged this, arguing that the defence still needed to prove that the belief that Hawks were carrying out war crimes in East Timor was a reasonable one. She pointed out that the prosecution, like British Aerospace themselves, had consistently referred to the Hawks as ‘trainer’ jets, downplaying their lethal capacity, and thereby attempting to sow in the jury’s minds that it was unreasonable to believe they were being used to commit war crimes. Eventually the judge relented, on the condition that the state would not be expected to pay for witnesses to be flown over from East Timor. This decision allowed the women to completely turn the tables and use the court to put British Aerospace and the British government on trial for complicity in genocide. One witness after another – including esteemed documentary maker John Pilger, Timorese resistance leader Jose Ramos Horta, and former political prisoner and founder of the Indonesian human rights campaign group TAPOL Carmel Budiardjo – all testified that Hawk jets were indeed being used to terrorise the Timorese people.  “It would be almost impossible for the Indonesians to maintain their occupation without the use of ground-attack planes,” explained Budiardjo, adding that the cancellation of the Hawk deal would “lift an enormous burden” from the Timorese. 

Secondly, the judge dismissed the prosecution’s attempts to prevent the jury from seeing the video the women had made explaining their actions. The video provided crucial context as to what was happening in East Timor, including first hand accounts of the genocide, as well as excerpts from British Aerospace’s own advertising materials for the Hawk, proudly proclaiming its attack capabilities: the very capabilities which the prosecution had desperately been trying to hide from the court. This video had completely changed the attitude of the magistrates when it had been shown to them at the women’s initial committal hearing, and the defendants hoped it would do the same for the jury. 

Finally, the judge allowed each member of the jury to read a copy of the booklet produced by the women. The prosecution claimed it was propaganda and the jury should not be allowed to see it, but the judge ruled they were “sensible enough” to view it if they wished. Allowing the jury to read and view first hand accounts of what was going on in East Timor brought home the gravity of what was at stake – and leaving the materials at the site, ensuring they were seized as evidence, was a genius act on the part of the women. 

The prosecution case was weak from the start. Conceding that the women genuinely believed that Hawk jets were facilitating war crimes in East Timor, they were reduced to arguing that stopping these crimes wasn’t their real motivation. They knew, the prosecution claimed, that the Hawks would be sent to Indonesia anyway, and therefore that their actions would not be preventing the crimes they claimed to be concerned about. Their true aim, they claimed, was not to prevent a crime, but to gain publicity for the cause. The prosecution case was fundamentally weakened, however, when British Aerospace themselves admitted that the Hawk’s delivery to Indonesia had been delayed by the damage the women had inflicted on it. 

Throughout the trial, the defendants were never defensive, but always on the frontfoot, knowing they had not only morality and justice, but law, on their side. They utterly rejected the state’s attempts to project its own guilt onto them, throwing it back where it belonged every time: 

“Do you not accept that this was a very, very irresponsible thing to do?,” the prosecution barrister asked Jo Wilson. “Not at all,” she replied, “What is irresponsible is selling weapons to a regime which Amnesty International has described as casual about mass murder.” 

“Do you think it was right to take the law into your own hands and go and attack someone else’s property?,” he asked Lotta. “I think the people who have taken the law into their hands are British Aerospace and the British government”, she replied. “They are blatantly breaching the Genocide Act. I’m not breaking the law, I’m upholding it.” 

The jury agreed. After a tense four hour wait, the foreman announced that the four defendants had been found not guilty on all charges. 

Indonesian foreign minister Ali Atlas had once described East Timor as an annoyance, “like a pebble in the shoe,” before admitting years later that the pebble had become “a veritable boulder.” Three years after the women’s break-in at RAF Warton, the Indonesian military was forced out of East Timor by a combination of popular resistance and international pressure; Andrea later said she believed that “what we did contributed in some small way to the goal of turning the pebble of East Timor into a boulder.” 

Since then, much has changed – but not everything. Britain is still arming genocide, and activists are still doing all they can to sabotage the weapons of war. Palestine Action has led the recent wave of nonviolent direct action against the manufacture of weapons for use in Israel’s attempts to annihilate the resistant people of Gaza, co-ordinating a incredible 400 actions against Elbit, an Israeli arms company with multiple factories in Britain, and the chief supplier of weapons to the IDF. Their tenacity – especially after one of their actions shifted focus to the complicity of the RAF itself – resulted in the group being banned last August, the first time an entirely nonviolent protest group had been proscribed as a ‘terrorist organisation.’ Supporting the group now carries a sentence of up to fourteen years. 

And an obscure House of Lords ruling in 2005 has been seized on by British courts recently to prevent a repeat of what happened in Liverpool Crown Court in 1996. Lord Hoffman, in an aside, claimed that, in a democratic state, no use of force can ever be reasonable to prevent crimes committed by the government, as the only reasonable way to challenge the government is through parliament or the courts. Therefore, he concluded, “evidence to support the opinions of the protesters as to the legality of the acts in question is irrelevant and inadmissible.” In the Filton 24 case being heard this week, the result is that, whilst the quadcopters targeted by the activists have been responsible for some of the most heinous war crimes of the whole Gaza war – as testified by respected surgeon Nizam Mamode in Parliament – none of this evidence has been allowed in front of the jury. Using the court to put UK complicity in genocide on trial, as the Ploughshares women did in 1996, has been rendered far more difficult now than it was then. 

There were other factors in favour of the not guilty verdict in 1996. Liverpool was a fortuitous place for the trial to be held, with a long tradition of anti-imperialism and scepticism towards authority due to its large Irish heritage population and proud working class identity – not to mention being the victim of a massive state and media onslaught to justify the unlawful killing of 97 Liverpool fans at a football match in the 1989 Hillsborough disaster. Had  the trial been held in Preston – the nearest court to where the action was held, where a significant proportion of the population work for British Aerospace, and where the local press had been unremittingly hostile to the action – the result may perhaps have been different. 

Furthermore, unlike Palestine Action today, there was no insinuation made that the Ploughshares women were terrorists; portraying them as such would likely have backfired on the prosecution, making them appear ridiculous and even unhinged. The Filton activists, however, were initially arrested for terrorism offences; their supporters and families were rounded up in dawn raids by masked police with automatic rifles; their group was banned as a terrorist organisation; and their trial is being held in Woolwich Crown Court, famous for its terrorism trials. Although not charged in the end with any terrorism offences, the state has labelled their crimes as having a ‘terrorism link,’ meaning the judge is able to arbitrarily increase their sentences beyond what would normally be considered acceptable should they be found guilty. The result of all of this is to create a context and atmosphere almost entirely absent in the Seeds of Hope trial, in which the defendants are a-priori demonised as terrorists and traitors. 

Finally, it cannot be ignored that the Seeds of Hope action chimed more easily with existing colonial prejudices in a country like Britain. Although this was never a part of the argument made by any of the four women or their supporters, the fact is that the perpetrator in that case was a Muslim country (Indonesia), attacking a largely Christian population (East Timor). Much of the support for the women came from the Christian community – especially Quakers but also Catholic groups in Liverpool; and Jo Wilson’s character witnesses came from an Anglican vicar and a Catholic priest. In the case of the Filton 24, the perpetrator is a fellow ‘white’ country (Israel) and the victims, in much of popular discourse, are widely portrayed as terrorists (Palestine). Islamophobia and white supremacy may be working against the Filton activists in a way that did not apply in the Seeds of Hope action in 1996. 

Nevertheless, all of these sordid tactics by the state suggests they are running scared. The whole point of prison is to render the prisoner insecure and vulnerable, to make them feel powerless. Yet they are not powerless – the governor’s unguarded comment to Lotta about their fears of a sit-down protest shows how insecure the prison officers themselves are about prisoners conducting civil disobedience. This was revealed again last year by their utterly disproportionate response when Palestine Action prisoner Heba Muraisi actually did start a spontaneous sit-down protest in solidarity with her comrade Jon Cink, who was being arbitrarily persecuted by the prison officers: she was sent to another prison hundreds of miles away in punishment, so she is unable to receive visits from her mother, who suffers from mobility problems. Around 2000 people have been arrested for supporting Palestine Action since the ban was announced, and the last thing the state wants to do is to send 2000 fearless activists into the prison system. Prisons are often full of people with nothing to lose, rejected by society and perhaps the most potentially revolutionary demographic in the country. Injecting them with an influx of committed activists experienced in civil disobedience could be the state’s worst nightmare. 

Meanwhile, the Palestine Action prisoners’ hunger strike continues with Heba Muraisi now 67 days without food, and Teuta Hoxha, Kamran Ahmad and Lewie Chiaramello on days 61, 60 and 46 respectively. Anything after 21 days risks permanent physical damage. But as Amu Gib, who was on hunger strike for 50 days recently, explained: “when you decide to take action despite being in prison, you’re free. Our action is a way of declaring that the state can’t stop you even when it has you in prison; that we are not going to give up the focus and the responsibility to people, whatever conditions we’re in.” That kind of spirit is infectious; and that is the genocidal state’s greatest fear. 

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A war against meaning

Dr Refaat Alareer, Gazan storyteller, killed in an airstrike on his sister’s apartment 3 days after the British RAF began passing targeting data to the Israeli airforce

January 7th 2025 – originally published in Counterpunch

I haven’t written much about Gaza since the war started, for two main reasons. One, because everything is already so clear. Britain, America, Israel and their allies have decided to try to eliminate a resistant population in a strategically crucial region, and the rest of the world is either participating, acquiescing or wringing its hands. Everyone can see what is happening; what can I add of any value that is not already entirely obvious? And secondly, because attempts to impose sense on such a senseless situation feel crass. The situation is so intensely disturbing, even the simple act of putting it into words seems already to trivialise it. As the Chicago-based Palestinian journalist Ali Abinimah of Electronic Intifada put it early on in this latest phase of the war, “People come to us for analysis. I don’t know how to analyse this. I don’t know what to say to people.” Because the annihilation of Gaza is also a war against meaning.

Our ability to make and tell stories is what makes us human. That’s also how we deal with suffering and pain and loss. But stories have an arc; there is a return from the abyss. Terrible, tragic things happen, even things which we might never heal from, but people change and adapt and weave the terrible into the story of their life. People die, but their influence lives on, their memory is celebrated and valued by those who knew and loved them. People suffer but they learn something and grow from their experiences, somehow, however awful they are. ‘Your gift will come from your wound,’ as the storytellers say.

But the sheer relentless nature of the holocaust in Gaza means there is no story arc. There is no return from the abyss. The abyss just grows and keeps growing. People are killed but before they can be grieved or celebrated or woven into a story, everyone who knew them is slowly (or quickly) killed as well, whilst anyone left is focused on survival. There is no time to make sense of anything, and no sense to be had anyway. There is no ‘personal growth’ to be made from this horror.

Ahmed Alnaouq, founder of the Palestinian group, We Are Not Numbers, lost his father, five remaining siblings and all fourteen of their children to an Israeli airstrike on his father’s home two weeks into the war. A year later, he was commissioned by the New Arab to write an article about it. He later told the Electronic Intifada about the process of writing this article: “Ten years ago, Israel killed my brother, my older brother, and that was the first time I lost a family member. But writing a story about my brother back then, it was much easier than writing this story about my family.  And I think it’s because when you lose only one brother, when you only lose one family member, you know that your sadness, your agony, your pain is focused, is concentrated, you know what you are lamenting for, you know what you are crying for. You know what is very deeply painful to you – it is a brother. Ten years ago, when Israel killed my brother, I couldn’t forget about my brother: I imagined, I remembered all the stories that we had together, all the memories, all the pictures: and for me that was a relief, because I knew who I was sad for. But when you lose twenty-one members of your family ..  you could not know who you cry for. I didn’t know to think about my father or my brother or my other brother or my sisters or my nieces and nephews, the fourteen kids who I raised some of them. I was very distracted for the past year. And because I was very distracted I couldn’t think of one specific person, I couldn’t dare to think of one of them for the past year, I would always avoid talking about them, I would avoid going to whatsapp messages that I shared with one of them. It was very difficult and I purposely tried to avoid remembering them because if I remember them I will be one hundred times more depressed than I am.”

And this is part of the intention. Resistance movements are built on stories: of repression and suffering and heroism. Refaat Alareer understood this very well (see his beautiful Ted Talk, ‘Stories Make Us’, here). He was perhaps the single most important figure in terms of bringing Gazan voices to the English-speaking world, and had educated and inspired a whole generation of English-language journalists and authors in the strip. In one of several books of Gazan writing he edited, he wrote that “Sometimes a homeland becomes a tale. We love the story because it is about our homeland and we love our homeland even more because of the story.” Israel wants to eradicate not only the Palestinians’ resistance and nation but also their ability to make sense of their situation. Hence the relentless killing of Gaza’s storytellers. Over 200 journalists and media workers have been killed by Israel in the past fifteen months, many in openly targeted attacks. Just last week, a clearly marked press van was hit by an Israeli missile, burning alive all five of its occupants. Refaat Alareer himself was hunted down and killed along with several members of his family in a targeted strike on his sister’s apartment on December 6th 2023 (perhaps not coincidentally, just three days after the British RAF began flying surveillance flights over Gaza for the IDF). It was the third attempt on his life: his own apartment and University had both been hit earlier in the war.. Famously, his last poem, written to his daughter Shaima, began ‘If I must die, you must live, to tell my story.’ But she too was killed, along with her husband and their baby son, in an airstrike on their home a few months later.

Think about the alcoholism rife in aboriginal communities in Australia and North America. This reflects not simply degraded material conditions and opportunities, but the transformation of a worldview rich with deep meaning into one rendered senseless through colonial erasure.

And they want to do that to the rest of us as well; they don’t want anyone to be able to imbue the story and concept of ‘Palestine’ with any meaning. And it is not easy to see a way to resist this – attempts to render meaning to the struggle, in the midst of a senseless holocaust, come across too often as crass denials of reality, using Palestinian suffering as a raw material to fuel our own pontifications.  Even as I write this now, it feels like that.

The tragedy is, Israelis are committed to this path because of their own need for a sense of meaning. The Nazi Holocaust had this same effect on many Jews, destroying their ability to make meaning of their individual and collective lives. But Israel was presented as their happy ending, one that made sense of the Holocaust and finally gave it meaning. It provided a final act that transformed that senseless event into a story. It was always a fiction of course; Amos Oz talks in his memoir about his mother’s suicide as a result of her inability to find meaning in her life after the horror of the Holocaust; for her, the mere concept of the state of Israel could not – despite (or perhaps because of) actually living there – help her overcome this.

To admit the failure of the project now would put Israelis right back face-to-face with the senselessness of the Holocaust. The final act was a myth. There never was any happy ending.

There is a way out of course, and it’s one Jews are increasingly taking – to embrace the fact that the struggle for justice is universal, and meaning comes from committing to that struggle, whatever the costs, with no exceptions. This means a decisive rejection of Zionism. But that is where meaning is to be found, even in the Holocausts and the Nakbas – for Palestinians, for Jews and for all of us.

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Did Putin make a deal over Syria?

December 20, 2024originally published in Counterpunch

The lightning collapse of the Assad government in Syria in recent weeks made it clear that pretty much no one, inside Syria or out, considered this to be a state worth fighting for. It also seemed pretty clear that Turkey (with the probable backing of Israel and the US) had taken the opportunity to use the forces it had been training in Idlib for some years to make a serious power play. The west have long sought to turn Syria into a ‘failed state’ on the Iraq-Libya model, and the new situation has allowed Israel to destroy, almost overnight, the vast bulk of the country’s military installations, and expand its occupation in the South. This is what they have all been working for for thirteen years. What is less clear is the extent to which Russia was in on this move.

The mainstream interpretation is essentially that the latest turn of events is a major blow to Russia. Syria was Russia’s only solid Arab ally, home to its only warm-water naval base (Tartus) as well as a huge airbase (Hmeimim) crucial for its operations in Africa in particular. The ‘loss’ of Syria was therefore a crippling blow to Moscow; a consequence, supposedly, of the Russian army being bogged down in Ukraine and thus unable to commit the necessary military resources to put down the insurrection in Syria.

Combined with the fact that Iran and Hezbollah were also both recovering from Israeli attacks, this created a window of opportunity for the insurgents and their backers to make their move. And it was a window that might have been very brief: Hezbollah could regroup quickly and, if Trump were to honour his promise to immediately impose a peace deal on Ukraine on coming to office, large numbers of Russian forces could be again free to operate in Syria, perhaps within a couple of months.

This is obviously part of the picture. Russia’s options were clearly limited. Any deal it cut would have been made from a position of weakness, at least relative to its position in, say, 2018. But that doesn’t mean no deal was made at all. It is incredibly unlikely, in my view, that Putin would not have been consulted in advance.

Firstly, the risk of large swathes of Turkey’s carefully groomed insurgents being simply wiped out by Russian airstrikes was serious, and both Erdogan and HTS would have sought to avoid this eventuality if at all possible. Even if Putin lacked the capacity to ultimately defeat the uprising, they would certainly have attempted to convince him not to try rather than simply cross their fingers and hope that he didn’t.

Secondly, although it is easy to say in hindsight, this takeover was clearly on the cards for some time. All the fighters from former opposition-held territories retaken by government forces during the war had been pushed into Idlib. There they were joined, in March 2020, by over 20,000 Turkish troops, including special forces, armoured units and light infantry including the 5th Commando Brigade which specialises in paramilitary operations and mountain warfare. They were not there for a picnic; for four years they have been, in plain sight, training and consolidating the insurgent forces to relaunch their insurrection. Russia was obviously aware of this and would have planned for it.

Furthermore, although Russia might have found it difficult to commit large numbers of its own troops to Syria, it could certainly have subsidised the salaries of Syrian army soldiers, which could well have gone some way to mitigating the mundane bread-and-butter defections and passivity within the Syrian army. It chose not to do so, presumably for a reason.

This does not mean, of course, that the whole thing was a Kremlin plot all along, as some are now trying to suggest. One theory claims that Putin, by allowing the Syrian government to fall, has cunningly set a trap for the west, who will now be bogged down trying to stabilise Syria for years to come, just as the Soviets were bogged down in 1980s Afghanistan. But this suggestion makes no sense – the transformation of Syria into a ‘failed state’ has always been the west’s aim, which is why they have backed the most sectarian forces to accomplish it. They achieved this in Libya without getting ‘bogged down;’ they hoped to repeat their success in Syria, and they have now done so. This theory seems to be a desperate clutching of straws by people who simply cannot interpret any event as anything other than a genius plan by the Grand Master.

The truth, I suspect, is rather more nuanced. Here is a  working hypothesis: the basic parameters of the HTS takeover of Syria were worked out and agreed in advance by Erdogan, Netanyahu, Putin and Trump. I suspect Trump offered Putin a straight swap – Syria for eastern Ukraine; with the caveat that Russia could keep its Syrian bases. This was acceptable to Putin for several reasons.

Firstly, obviously, eastern Ukraine is his priority. Secondly, his only real concern in Syria was those bases, anyway. He may well have come round to the west’s ‘Divide and Ruin’ strategy – essentially, that it is easier and cheaper to secure your specific assets (bases, mines, oil wells etc) in a failed state using local militias, private security and/or your own armed forces than it is to secure an entire state to do so for you. Thirdly, Assad had, by all accounts, not been fully playing ball with Russia, and had been unwilling to turn Syria into the pure vassal state that Putin was demanding, making himself less valuable and more expendable in so doing. Fourth, Russia’s ultimate goal to take over patronage from the US of its Middle East client states can only be done by demonstrating Russia’s usefulness to Turkey, Israel and Saudi Arabia. In facilitating the fruition of those states’ thirteen-year regime-change operation in Syria, he has certainly done that, paving the way for (and perhaps already part of) future collaborations and deepening alliances. Fifth, just because Iran is an ‘ally’ of Russia, does not mean Russia wants it to be strong and autonomous. Quite the opposite. Like any imperial power, what Russia seeks are not allies, but dependencies. This latest move has gone a long way to transforming Iran from a Russian ally to a Russian dependency.

Cutting off Iran from the resistance in Lebanon and Gaza is no bad thing from Russia’s point of view: partly because Iran’s patronage of those groups acts as a source of power and autonomy for Iran, giving it some kind of ‘deterrence’ independent of the Russian defensive umbrella. If the resistance is cut off and neutered, Iran’s only source of deterrence (other than its own, admittedly formidable but nonetheless heavily Russian-reliant, defences) is Russia. And popular, autonomous, working-class resistance militias (such as Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis) are a nuisance for any imperial power anyway, a constant potential spanner-in-the-works to any colonial carve-up agreed by the Big Men.

And finally, of course, as discussed above, Putin’s options were limited; he could certainly have slowed the rebel advance but it is unclear whether he could have defeated it, and even the attempt to do so would have entailed some, potentially quite significant, diversion of manpower from the war on Ukraine. With limited options available, a deal that allowed him to keep eastern Ukraine and his Syrian bases would have likely seemed like the best available.

Claims that the latest events are a huge blow to Russia are therefore overstated. In strategic terms, if the bases are maintained, nothing has really been lost, other than a tedious responsibility to maintain an unpopular and disobedient client. And, in the longer-term, regional picture, much may have been gained, as suggested above.

The other argument often made is that this is a blow to Russian ‘prestige,’ that its ‘stock’ as a power willing and able to defend its allies will have been reduced significantly. A report from the Institute for the Study of War published shortly before the fall of Damascus, for example, claims that “Assad’s collapse would damage the global perception of Russia as an effective partner and protector, potentially threatening Russia’s partnerships with African autocrats and its resulting economic, military, and political influence in Africa.”

That’s possible, of course. But Putin’s ditching of Assad might in fact send a different message to Putin’s new African friends: “Don’t think you can just do whatever you want and still expect to be protected. Remember you are expendable. We can throw you to the dogs at any moment. And without our support, you won’t last five minutes. Never forget you are not an ally, but a client.” African leaders contemplating any resistance to the full integration of their armies under Russian tutelage may well be chastened by this message, and in a way entirely beneficial to Russian interests.

And whilst it is true that EU leaders are now demanding that HTS kick out the Russians, the truth is that it is not really the EU’s opinion that matters, but Trump’s. Let’s see what he says on the matter; and more importantly, what he does.

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UK general election 2024: A few facts and and a few thoughts 

First, some facts: 

  • Two-thirds of voters voted against Labour.
  • 80% of the total electorate did not vote for Labour.
  • Labour’s vote share (34%) was far below the 40% they achieved under Corbyn in 2017. 
  • Labour got 600,000 fewer votes than in 2019, but this resulted in a 1.6% higher vote SHARE due to the dramatic drop in turnout. This increase in vote share since 2019 was entirely due to their 17% increase in Scotland. Labour’s vote share flatlined in England and dropped 4% in Wales. 
  • Labour’s vote share as a proportion of TOTAL electorate (ie as a proportion of everyone ELIGIBLE to vote, even if they didn’t actually do so) is the lowest it has been in the last three elections: 
    • 2017 = 26.5%
    • 2019 = 21.6%
    • 2024 = 20.2%
  • The combined Tory-Labour vote share (58%) is likely the lowest ever. 
  • In all 171 seats lost by the Tories, the combined Tory-Reform UK vote share was higher than Labour’s vote share 
  • Five independents were elected, the most since 1950 
  • George Galloway’s Worker’s Party failed to win a single seat (although they secured over 210,000 votes, more than the DUP (who got five seats) and roughly equal to Sinn Fein (who got seven seats)). 
  • Turnout (60%) was the second lowest in modern history.

And four thoughts: 

  1. There is no future for the Conservative Party without Nigel Farage 

If the Tories want to win again they need to get those Reform votes back. Johnson showed this could be done without Farage. But those were in very special times, with Corbyn and Brexit. Those times are not coming back. Now Reform UK are winning seats, the dam has broken. Reform UK now have the power to offer a deal to the Tories to form a coalition and eventually, one way or another, the Tories will have to take it. This means the Tory party will have moved permanently to an overtly far-right migrant-baiting party. Their only other option is to take Farage out tbh. 

  1. The far right have a strategy and play a long game which the radical left seem incapable of 

It was always clear that Reform UK was going to split the Tory vote and deliver a big win to Labour. Various Tory papers warned of this and that’s exactly what happened. But Reform’s leaders don’t care about that. Their long game is precisely to facilitate this outcome (Tories losing to Labour) in order to use that as leverage to take over the Tories (as outlined in point 1 above!). They are loyal to their politics (of migrant-baiting white nationalism) rather than to the Tory party as an organisation.

The Corbynite left, however, are loyal, not to their proclaimed politics of liberation and empowerment, but rather to the Labour party, in whatever guise. Corbyn stayed loyal to Labour throughout the years of genocidal warmongerer Tony Blair, and had to be dragged out of Labour kicking and screaming even after the party had done a hatchet job on him personally. He could have initiated a new grassroots party after the 2019 election (or indeed long before) but the accusations of ‘splitting the vote’ and ‘letting the Tories in’ would never allow him to do that. The result is a total capitulation to the warmongering-austerity-privatisation Labour right and a landslide victory for the politics Corbyn claims to oppose. 

  1. British citizens (of all political and demographic backgrounds) generally do not care about genocide 

With the exception of Corbyn’s Islington North, all the seats won by pro-Palestine independents were in constituencies where more than 10% of the voters are Muslim. In those constituencies, Labour’s vote share dropped by an average of 11%. In other words, with a very tiny handful of exceptions, it is only Muslims who care enough about genocide to actually vote against it en masse. This once again demonstrates the overwhelming commitment to colonial politics of white voters across the political spectrum. In times of crisis, this commitment to colonial politics means commitment to overt genocide and fascism. 

I should add here that even the majority of Muslims with British citizenship privilege do not care about genocide enough to vote against it – 60% of British Muslims voted Labour (down from 80% in 2019) 

  1. The electorate increasingly don’t care about which tweedledee-tweedledum party is in power 

That 42% of voters voted for third parties (or independents) in a two-horse race is, in a way, quite incredible. Combined with the fact that 40% of the electorate didn’t bother to vote at all, that means a huge majority of the electorate (two-thirds in fact) are not willing to take part in the charade of voting for the so-called ‘lesser of two evils.’ The system is in a deepening crisis of legitimacy, where two-thirds of the electorate are refusing to use their democratic right to choose between a Labour and a Conservative government. However, due to the basic colonial structure of the British economy, and the colonial culture of British politics, it will be, as we have seen, the far right who pick up the pieces of this fallout far more than the radical left.  

(There is arguably a contradiction between my points 3 and 4 above – which is that, two-thirds of the electorate DIDN’T vote for either of the two explicitly pro-genocide parties. However, neither were they, in the main, willing to vote for explicitly ANTI-genocide parties or candidates. The fate of the Worker’s Party, under the leadership of the most well-known and articulate anti-war politician of modern times, is particularly revealing). 

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The Iranian retaliatory strike on Israel and the US-Russian struggle for the patronage of Zionism

Looking through the fog of propaganda, it is becoming clear that the Iranian move on Israel was an astounding success.

The fact that most of the 300+ missiles/ drones were shot down is neither here nor there. My understanding (see first part of this video) is that the bulk of these were cheap and in many cases old (near obsolete and close to being decommissioned) weapons, which were effectively fired as decoys, to allow the, I think 7 hypersonic missiles to get through, which all of them did, hitting an airbase in the Negev which is used to launch the F-35s which are bombing Gaza (and which bombed the Israeli consulate in Damascus), and a military intelligence base.

The Iranian expenditure was therefore minimal, perhaps $50-60millon, compared to an estimated $1.3billion spent by the genocidal entity and its backers on shooting them down.

I have not yet seen any pictures of the damage caused at these target sites, but have no reason to believe the Israeli claims that it was ‘minimal,’ especially given the footage that is available of the huge explosions caused by impact.

Anyone claiming the attack was a military failure must believe that Iran genuinely intended and believed that all (or most) of these cheap obsolete slow-travelling missiles were not going to be shot down. This is completely unfeasible. More likely is that the aim all along was to hit the two military targets in Israel with a small number of hypersonic missiles, and this aim was achieved; the operation can therefore be seen as a battlefield success.

In addition to that, it allowed the Iranians to test these new missiles, and establish that the much-vaunted ‘Iron Dome’ defence system – as well as the combined firepower of the USA, the UK and France – were unable to stop them.

In the words of Professor Mohammad Mirandi, that attack has now created a new ‘military equation’ in the region. The years of ‘strategic patience,’ where Iran has barely responded to the incessant Israeli attacks on its forces in Syria, for example, are now over. Iran is now saying that it will respond, forcefully, with direct attacks on Israel, should its forces in the region be attacked in the future. And it has been proved that these missiles can penetrate all the combined Israeli-FUKUS defences.

In stark contrast to the days following October 7th, the last major attack penetrating Israel’s defences, where the west were virtually begging Israel to wipe out Gaza with their mantras about “self-defence” and the need to “eliminate Hamas”, today all the talk is of “restraint” and “avoiding escalation.” It is one thing to conduct endless massacres against a starving population, but quite another to engage a militarily-advanced regional power in a potentially all-out war. Israel’s options are thus very limited.

Where are the Palestinians in all this? There may or may not be some practical impediments to the genocide by the damage caused to the airbase, that is hard to discern. Likewise for the Iron Dome system – have its resources been depleted enough to allow more Palestinian rockets to get through than would normally be the case? I don’t know, but I know such rockets have been falling in Israel in recent days (when usually they would be shot down). But more than that, obviously this is a huge morale boost for the Palestinian resistance and indeed the whole Palestinian population to see their enemy humbled. By highlighting Israeli weakness and impotence – and the cowardice of its allies – the psychological barrier to believing that an end to Zionist rule is possible has been delivered a deadly blow.

One other thought – where are the Russians in all this?

I consider this question based on two assumptions, or lets call them working hypotheses (and please correct me if you think they are wrong!) – 1. That Russia seeks not to bring down the twin pillars of counter-revolution in the region (Zionism and the House of Saud), but rather take over these tools of colonial control from the US and become their new patrons. 2. The Iranian attack on Israel would not have happened without Russian approval.

With this in mind, how does the Iranian attack fit into the long-term Russian goal of eliminating the US presence in the region?

Let’s look at what is likely happening now. Netanyahu is desperately trying to find a way to ‘respond’ – to ‘reestablish deterrence’ by launching a retaliatory attack on Iran that will NOT provoke the repeated, more intense, missile barrage that Iran has promised should this happen.

Who can help him achieve that? Who has influence enough over Iran to be able to restrain their response to any retaliation? Certainly not the US.

If I was Putin, this is what I would be telling Netanyahu: ‘Look at your ‘allies.’ They are pathetic. They can’t defend you. And now they are telling you you are not even allowed to defend yourself.

We understand Israel. We are also under attack, from Islamist terrorists, and from upstart neighbouring states, just like you. We are also misunderstood and demonised by the west. The west just wants to tie your hands with namby-pamby liberal human rights guff. None of them have experienced war, and none of them knows how to win one.

Work with us. If you want to retaliate we can find a way. We can ensure the Iranian response is limited. Can the US do this for you? They can’t help you at all. Only we can protect you from Iran’

And in this way, the Russians can slowly start to eclipse the US in the region – but much more powerfully, as patron of BOTH Israel AND Iran. And thereby create a ‘peace’ between them both – and which they both want – which the US cannot do. in fact, the US has limited power over either – its unconditional support for Israel means it has given up its leverage there, whilst its ongoing economic war with Iran means it has no leverage there either.

Finally, what was the Israeli intent in bombing the Iranian consulate in Damascus two weeks ago?

I think there are some comparisons to be drawn here with the Turkish shooting down of a Russian fighter jet on the Syrian border in 2015.

My analysis of this at the time was that it was primarily a test of the West’s willingness to confront Russia. Turkey understood that it was being used by the west as a proxy against Russia in Syria, to weaken Russia by supporting Russia’s enemies there. But it wanted to know that, if push came to shove, would the US have Turkey’s back? If things spiralled, and Turkey actually came face-to-face with Russia in war, would the US stand with them? Or would they leave them to deal with it by themselves?

The answer was – no, the US were happy to use Turkey against Russia, but was not willing to back them militarily against Russia if it came to a direct confrontation.

This led Turkey to very quickly reach a rapprochement with Russia.

Israel, in its attack on the Iranian consulate was perhaps doing the same thing. By provoking a direct confrontation with Iran, it wanted to test its ‘allies’ willingness to actually back them in such a fight. The US has been pouring scorn on Iran for decades – but would it actually be willing to take them on in a direct confrontation with Israel? The answer, again, seems to be – don’t bank on it. Hence, again, Israel may well be drawing the conclusion that it would be better to reach accommodation with them, and their Russian backers, than to rely on the US ‘having their back’ should things escalate.

The outcome Russia and Israel now likely seek would be such an accommodation – basically, Iran’s own version of the Abraham Accords, with the Russians as guarantors. I would hope Iran is not also seeking this outcome, but I wouldn’t bet on it. This would, of course, be the absolute worst outcome for the Palestinians. But history has many examples of these big confrontations being, not steps on the road to victory, but the opening salvos of a coming collaboration. In hindsight, after all, was the Yom Kippur war not merely the prelude to Camp David?

Am I being too cynical here?

I certainly hope so. But that’s how I see it.